Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"Whether it is the short-term or long-term fund groups, they are not so decisive in handing over the low-level chips they have finally obtained." Li Shangfeng said, "After the market emerged from the deep V-shaped golden needle bottoming pattern yesterday, the expectation that the market will enter a rebound cycle in the near future has become very strong.

Most investors have relatively consistent expectations, coupled with the good feedback from the market at the moment.

I think most of the fund groups that bought the bottom yesterday will not easily give up their bargaining chips. At least...even if they are taking profits, they will wait for the market to rise further.

What's more, the strongest performance in yesterday's market trend happened to be the core theme of "big infrastructure".

The core theme of "big infrastructure", the current underlying logic, the industry expectation logic, the future performance explosion expectations... and other related expectations are basically clear based on the research reports of major institutions in the industry and the actual situation of the continued hot offline real estate market.

In other words, the "big infrastructure" line should have been logically recognized by many capital groups and various investor groups in the market.

With the underlying logic being generally recognized and with the positive feedback from the market trend.

The group of investors who have finally got the chips at the bottom will have even less reason to give up the chips easily.

Therefore, I think the potential selling pressure in the market today will not be very strong, and it also has the momentum to open high and close high, and rebound with reduced volume. "

"From the underlying logic, your understanding of the line of 'big infrastructure' is still correct." Wang Shujie said, "Don't forget that the market is not just about 'big infrastructure'. Even if the underlying logic of 'big infrastructure' is generally recognized by many investor groups and various capital groups in the market, it is difficult to independently support the upward movement of the overall market index.

The overall market situation needs to improve significantly and rebound strongly.

It still needs the cooperation of other market main lines to pull up and the overall money-making effect to continue to rise to stimulate.

It is obvious that the defensive main-line sectors with concentrated weights, such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, and finance, have already delivered on many of the expectations for performance explosions next year due to the significant increases in the first half of the year. In addition, institutions have generally completed their layouts on these main lines and have no motivation to further increase their holdings. At the same time, although the "national team" will not reduce its holdings in these main-line areas in the short term, it will not further increase its holdings in these main-line areas.

So, these defensive main line sectors are in their current position.

It clearly lacks upward explosive power and the core driving force for the stock price to rise.

Without the assistance of these core defensive main-line sectors, let's look at the 'pan-technology' main-line sectors that are highly correlated with the GEM index's trend, such as Internet software, electronic information, film and television media... These small and medium-cap concept stocks are clustered. Due to the heavy locked-in shares, as well as the deteriorating industry fundamentals and future performance expectations, the main internal capital groups have already withdrawn completely from these main-line sectors.

Now in these main sectors, more than 95% of the chips are in the hands of retail investors.

Retail investors are the most difficult to form a unified force.

At the same time, due to the poor expectations for the future performance of these main sectors, the main institutional capital groups will definitely not intervene to increase positions and go long at this point in time.

Of course, this is due to the chaotic chip structure within these main sectors.

The numerous hot money active in the market will most likely not intervene to speculate on the stock price when there are sell-offs, stop-loss orders, locked-in orders, and a strong desire to sell.

That is to say...

The entire market at present, except for the "big infrastructure" line, has upward expectations and capital motivation.

Other main sectors of the market are currently lacking in upward rebound momentum.

It is said that a single tree cannot support a business. I think that it is still unrealistic to rely solely on the "big infrastructure" line to create room for the index to rebound when the market investors' confidence in going long has not fully recovered.

Therefore, based on the current position, I still think that the market is very likely to maintain a volatile mode.

At the same time, without the support of other main sectors, the "big infrastructure" line may not be able to independently create much space and money-making effect in the short term.

In general, at this position, at this point in time.

We still can’t be too optimistic, and of course, we don’t need to be too pessimistic either.”

"Since the underlying logic of the 'big infrastructure' line has been generally recognized by market investors, and the main capital groups of all parties also have the motivation and intention to continue to increase their holdings in this core main line area, then..." Li Shangfeng paused and continued, "It is still possible for it to strengthen independently, right? After all, before... when the market was extremely depressed, wasn't it the 'big infrastructure' line that created a profit effect, which led to the previous wave of continuous rebound?"

"That's still a little different." Wang Shujie said, "At that time, where were the core leading stocks of the core theme of 'big infrastructure', and where are they now? At that time, it didn't take too much money to pull the core theme of 'big infrastructure' and create a money-making effect. With a shrinking volume, you can focus on creating a money-making effect.

But look at you now...

In the core main line area of ​​'big infrastructure', no matter whether it is a number of core leading stocks or related concept stocks, they are basically in the core area of ​​historical trapped stocks.

Although after this period of adjustment, a lot of the trapped chips in the core area of ​​this historical trapped market have been cleared.

However, the overall upward pressure is still much greater than when the first wave of the core theme of "big infrastructure" was launched.

In other words, we now need to support the core theme of "big infrastructure" to move upward, and quickly create a sufficient money-making effect to attract more off-market funds to intervene, and drive up other main-line sectors in the market, so that long funds can overflow into other main-line sectors for speculation and raise the overall valuation level of the market.

The liquidity in the market alone is not enough.

However, incremental funds off-market are reluctant to come in without sufficient money-making effects and sufficient favorable policies.

What can be done then?

We can only wait for the "big infrastructure" line to continue to fluctuate, and the internal chip structure to continue to settle and digest here.

When the core theme of "big infrastructure" is pulled and too much capital is not needed, and the upward selling pressure is reduced to the minimum, it is almost time to start the main upward trend.

Only in this way, in the absence of a large amount of incremental funds entering, can we break out of the market and create a money-making effect.

Of course, if there are any important changes in the news.

For example, the regulatory authorities have released major positive news. Regarding the main direction of "big infrastructure", the country has introduced major favorable policies.

So, driven by strong positive news.

It can also help lock up some of the funds in the market and reduce the upward resistance of the core theme of "big infrastructure".

It’s just that we haven’t seen any positive news at this level, so we can only wait and wait for further clear signals from the market.”

"Okay." After listening to Wang Shujie's analysis, Li Shangfeng nodded slightly and said, "Then let's continue to stick to the previous trading strategy. Let's take a look here first. Don't rush to increase your position. Keep some positions and wait for a clearer buying point."

"Okay." Wang Shujie nodded in agreement.

And as the two of them analyzed and discussed the market opening pattern.

Soon, 9:30 arrived, and after a brief 5-minute suspension, the two markets once again entered the formal continuous bidding trading period.

After only 5 minutes of emotional brewing.

As soon as the market officially opened, under the surge of bullish sentiment, the stocks related to the much-watched "big infrastructure" main line quickly rose and strengthened.

At 9:31, in just one minute, the share price of 'Oriental Yuhong', yesterday's rebound pioneer stock, rose by about 4%. Compared with yesterday's intraday limit down, it has rebounded by more than 15%.

At 9:32, the main sector indices of "big infrastructure" including real estate development, building decoration, building materials, nonferrous metals, steel, coal, etc. all turned positive and rose.

At 9:35, the share price of 'Golden Land Group' rebounded by more than 3%.

However, just as various long-term funds were chasing after stocks related to the "big infrastructure" theme.

In other main areas of the market, whether it is defensive main-line sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, and finance, or sectors such as film and television media, Internet software, and electronic information that were severely oversold yesterday, there is a lack of proactive buying. A number of main-line related industry sectors, related component stocks, and concept stocks all showed a trend of weak rebound.

So, when these main lines are unable to assist.

At 9:41, in the rapidly rising "big infrastructure" main line area, many short-term capital groups that took profits from yesterday's oversold market began to take profits and sell when they saw that the overall bullish sentiment of the market had not recovered much and there was no other main line to assist in the rise.

At 9:45, under the selling of these short-term profit-taking orders, the share price of Oriental Yuhong fell back to around 2%.

At 9:50, within the main area of ​​"big infrastructure", the industry sector indexes including real estate development, building decoration, building materials, nonferrous metals, steel, and coal all fell back to within 1%. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite Index's increase had fallen below the opening position.

At 9:55, almost all stocks in the two markets had given up their gains since the opening.

"Alas, such a strong opening pattern did not come out." Noticing that the bullish sentiment in the two cities began to fall rapidly, at the same time, the selling pressure on the main lines of the two cities, various industry sectors, and various popular leading stocks was also increasing with the times. At this time in Shanghai, Xu Qiao, a major speculator of the 'Shanghai Super Short Gang' in Shanghai, sighed helplessly and said, "The market's motivation and confidence to go long are still obviously insufficient. There are still too few active buying orders, which can't produce the profit effect on the market, and can't continue to accumulate bullish sentiment."

"Indeed, it looks like the market is still likely to rise and then fall back today." Lao Zhang responded quickly, "Fortunately, I was able to hold back a bit when the market opened and didn't follow up with too many positions."

"The 'big infrastructure' line is okay, and the market feedback at the beginning of the trading session is relatively in line with expectations." Lao Wu said, "The key is that the other main lines of the market have not come out, and there is not enough buying funds to leverage the market. Since none of the other main market lines have come out, it is naturally very difficult to push up by relying solely on the 'big infrastructure' line."

"Indeed, a single core cannot drive the entire market sentiment." Xu Qiao nodded and said, "Originally, the two sub-sectors of 'consumer electronics' and 'security lenses' rebounded in the market yesterday afternoon, and the feedback was quite good. However, they did not show any obvious improvement at the opening today, which is really a pity.

As for the defensive main sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, and finance.

Originally, funds were invested in these core sectors for risk aversion.

At the opening stage of today, the market's bullish sentiment heated up, and the poor performance of these main sectors was reasonable.

Even the oversold Internet software, electronic information, film and television media, new energy industry chain... these mainline sectors have not come out, and there is not even a short-term capital group paying attention to bottom-fishing and oversold rebounds. It is really a bit outrageous. I didn't expect that these already severely oversold mainline sectors and their related concept stocks would still be so weak when the sentiment has slightly improved?"

"This is not surprising." Brother Chen paused and said, "Except for the 'big infrastructure' line, which has basically been unanimously recognized by various fund groups, the underlying logic and the expected future performance explosion have been verified. Other main lines, especially Internet software, electronic information, film and television media... these main line sectors basically have no underlying logic support, and the internal chip structure is still in a relatively chaotic stage.

Due to the serious loss effect in the previous period.

The numerous short-term capital groups in the market are cautious about these sectors.

As for the retail investor group, except for those who are already trapped in these main sectors, other retail investor groups are also quite cautious about intervening in these sectors to buy at the bottom.

In other words, the various capital groups in the current market are basically like frightened birds in their attitude towards these non-core main-line sectors with extremely serious loss-making effects.

Since it is a frightened bird, it is unlikely to develop a continuous rebound pattern.

As for us, we should not have too high expectations for these non-core popular main-line sectors and related stocks that have long been abandoned by the main institutional groups in the market.

At this position, since the rebound is not as expected...

Then let's just wait and see the volatile trend. It is estimated that under the short-term profit-taking and selling, the market index will return to yesterday's low point to confirm support.

If the index falls back to yesterday's low but does not break a new low.

In other words, if it slightly breaks yesterday's low, but can hold within this range and rebound again, forming another V-shaped trend.

Then, it can be basically confirmed that this is the low support point of this round of adjustment platform.

At the same time, it is also a relatively clear point to increase positions and go long."