Reborn as a tycoon in Hong Kong

After oil prices fluctuated for a few minutes, they began to turn downward. It was obvious that short sellers had temporarily gained the upper hand.

"Chairman, it seems that the short positions are currently stronger. We can close some of the long orders first and then take them back later."

Upon seeing this, Vivien Kelly immediately said that although her judgment was still bullish and oil prices were rising, since it was falling and shorts were stronger, she should take advantage of the trend and use part of her position to make short-term gains.

"Leave 70% of the position unchanged, and you can do whatever you want with the remaining 30%."

Lin Baicheng said aloud that although he knew that oil prices would rise in the future, taking out 30% of the position and letting Vivien Kelly lead the operation would allow him to better understand Vivien Kelly's operating level.

Vivien Kelly heard this and immediately issued an order: "Group A and Group B will each close their long positions of US$100 million, and stop selling when the oil price is lower than US$13.85 per barrel."

"Yes, manager!"

The traders in Group A and Group B, who were sitting at the computer desk, immediately placed orders on the computer.

At this time, Vivien Kelly said to Lin Baicheng: "Chairman, I still insist on being long. The short position is only temporarily strong. We can use 10% of the position to make a short-term difference. If too many positions are closed, I am worried. It will be too late to pick it up later.”

"Do what you want."

Lin Baicheng nodded, Vivien Kelly's arrangement was not wrong.

Oil futures are different from the stock market. One lot is equal to 1,000 barrels. If calculated at a price of US$14 per barrel, one lot is US$14,000.

Each group closed a long order of 100 million US dollars. This does not mean that one account sells more than 7,000 lots at once, but that the sales are divided into multiple accounts. When doing long, it is divided into multiple accounts to buy. , and now selling is naturally the same.

Therefore, from the market's perspective, there are suddenly one, twenty, hundreds or even thousands of large orders on the market, causing the already downward oil price to fall faster.

The current daily trading volume of the oil futures market, without long and short competition for positions, averages about 50,000 lots per day, which is a daily trading volume of about US$700 million.

However, if there is short or long strength, or even when there is a divergence between long and short, the daily trading volume will definitely rise sharply.

Taking yesterday as an example, oil prices rose sharply by 3.485%. The trading volume that day was 76,500 lots, with a turnover of US$1 billion.

Today's trading volume is even greater than yesterday. In the morning alone, there was more than 600 million U.S. dollars in transaction volume. But even so, a 200 million U.S. dollar sell order is still very large on the market, accelerating the decline in oil prices.

"Groups A and B, please pay attention. After the oil price falls below 13.7 US dollars per barrel, they will start to slowly build positions and buy back as many lots as they sold before."

With oil prices falling to $13.75 a barrel, Vivien Kelly once again spoke out and issued orders.

Regardless of the fact that not long after the sale and purchase, the price difference was a little more than 0.2 US dollars per barrel, but this short difference was more than a percentage point. The capital of 200 million US dollars was a profit of about 3 million US dollars.

In the futures market, it is very important to be able to make short-term spreads. If you can make the right short-term spread once a week, there are 52 weeks in a year, including 50 trading weeks after deducting special holiday breaks. That is a 50% profit, which is quite enough. Taller.

It's just that this kind of good thing is basically impossible. There are times when you make short-term mistakes. If you want to make short-term mistakes right every time, how can you be such a good investor? If there was such a powerful person, he would have gone out on his own a long time ago, so how could he still work for others.

The price of oil did not fall below the price of US$13.7 per barrel all of a sudden. The closing price of oil price yesterday was US$13.66 per barrel. The closer it is to this price, the stronger the resistance of bulls will be. There is strong support near this price.

Oil prices experienced a small rebound, but Vivien Kelly looked at the market with an unchanging expression and did not let anyone take back the selling orders immediately.

Over the next fifteen minutes, oil prices first rebounded to a short-term high of $13.8 a barrel, and then fell again, this time below $13.7 a barrel.

When the oil price was about to fall below, Group A and Group B had already placed a small number of long orders.

As oil prices fell, long orders opened continued to be filled.

When the $200 million sold by Golden Fleece Company was bought back, the oil price did not rebound as a result. It was still fluctuating and falling. It had already fallen below yesterday's closing price before the position was completed. Today's trend has become From rising to falling.

Vivien Kelly's face has become ugly, because the current trend is different from what she judged. It looks like it is rising and falling. There is insufficient momentum from many parties, so there is still a lot of room for decline.

"Chairman, judging from the current trend, the short side may be stronger, and there will be a lot of room for decline in the future. Should we close the long orders?"

If Golden Fleece Company closes its long orders now, it will still make a profit. Therefore, although it did not meet the expectations of the judgment, Vivien Kelly still had the idea of ​​​​taking advantage of the situation.

“What is our average cost price?”

Lin Baicheng did not answer, but asked.

Vivien Kelly heard this and looked at her assistant beside her.

The assistant said: "Including the short difference just made, it is now 13.21 US dollars per barrel!"

Lin Baicheng said aloud: "So there is an increase of more than two points, so let's continue to watch, don't operate now, and see how it will go in the future."

The trend of oil prices that day was ugly, rising first and then falling, closing at $13.38 per barrel, a decrease of 2.05%. If someone bought it in the morning when a barrel was 14 US dollars, the loss would be about 4.5% today.

It just so happens that US$13.38 per barrel is not today's lowest price, but US$13.3 per barrel. If there are funds chasing the price using twenty times leverage, then the position will be liquidated and the position will be forced to be liquidated by the financing institution.

This is funds using twenty times leverage. Funds using more leverage would have been liquidated long ago. Oil futures can use leverage up to 100 times, which means that if you lose 1%, you will lose all your principal. Basically no one dares to play this way.

After the market closed, Lin Baicheng called Vivien Kelly to Maori Haruko's office, and Maori Haruko was also there.

"What do you think about the future of oil prices? Should you insist on being bullish?"

"Today oil prices fell back after rising high, and the bears have the upper hand. It is more likely that they will continue to adjust downward in the future. It is not impossible to return to the price of US$13 per barrel in the short term, or even fall below this price."

"Chairman, although I am still bullish on oil prices in the long term, since it will adjust downward in the short term, we should close our long orders first."

Vivien Kelly spoke out and expressed her opinion. In the futures market, you must know how to admit defeat. If you refuse to admit defeat, you insist that your judgment is correct. The market will teach you how to be a good person. You should admit defeat when you should, not to mention this operation. There was no loss, just not much profit.

"There is no need to close long orders. I am also optimistic about the long-term trend of oil prices."

Hearing this, Lin Baicheng couldn't help but waved his hand, letting Vivien Kelly lead the operation to observe her ability, but she had to make money, and let a lot of money-making opportunities fly away from her eyes.

Vivien Kelly couldn't help but said: "But if we don't close the long orders and the oil price drops, we may suffer losses later, and the specific loss ratio cannot be determined yet."

"It's okay if you suffer short-term losses. If you lose money, just keep holding on."

Lin Baicheng smiled and said: "With a cost of US$13.21 per barrel and a leverage of about five times, as long as the oil price falls below US$11 per barrel, then our funds will be safe. Vivian, do you think the oil price may fall below US$11 per barrel?" Is it $11 a barrel?”

Vivien Kelly immediately said: "Although anything can happen in the futures market, a 20% drop in our capital loss is basically unlikely."

"That's it."

Lin Baicheng nodded: "Besides, even if the oil price falls below 11 US dollars per barrel, we don't have funds to cover our positions. No matter how the oil price falls, as long as the oil price rises in the long term, sooner or later we can make profits from losses."

Vivien Kelly couldn't help but remind: "Chairman, although I think my judgment is correct, if the oil price trend shows a downward trend, then we must stop the loss when it is time to stop the loss, and we must know how to admit defeat, otherwise Not only will we lose all our principal, but even more money. As long as we have funds, we can still look for opportunities in the future to keep hope."

"I understand what you mean, and I have my own judgment on this."

Lin Baicheng knew Vivien Kelly's good intentions, but he believed more in the memory before rebirth. If the butterfly effect really happened, it would be bad luck for him.

Lin Baicheng has said this, so naturally Vivien Kelly will not say anything more.

Lin Baicheng: "If you insist on going long and hold long orders, before closing the position, if you see a suitable opportunity to make a short-term difference, then you can use part of the position to make a short-term difference. By the way, don't go short. To make short-term trades, don’t do hedging-style short-term trades.”

The reason why Vivien Kelly was not allowed to make a short difference through short selling was because he was not sure when the oil price would rise sharply. If Vivien Kelly just shorted the oil price and then rebounded and rose sharply, then not only the short seller would be Some funds did not earn profits from the increase, but instead suffered losses from the short-term decline, which is equivalent to twice the loss, and the risk is a bit high.

When you know that oil prices will trend upward, there is no need to take the riskier short position.

"I took note of it, Chairman."

Vivien Kelly responded and nodded to show her understanding.

Lin Baicheng said with relief: "Don't be too stressed. At least our funds are still profitable at the moment, and I'm here to guide you, so what you have to do is read the market analysis with a calm mind."

"Thank you, Chairman!"

Vivien Kelly sincerely thanked her. If she had made a mistake in her judgment at Merrill Lynch or another investment bank, all the responsibility would have been on her, and the outcome waiting for her would have been to get out.

However, if she were still working at Merrill Lynch, Vivien Kelly would not be able to operate such a large amount of funds, and she would be more cautious. When the oil price falls below 14 US dollars per barrel, she will start to close her positions and lock in profits. .

Vivien Kelly would not risk her career. She would rather earn less, which would be more stable.

Lin Baicheng waved his hand: "You go out first and have a good rest at night."

"Chairman, I'm going out first."

Vivien Kelly stood up to say hello and left the office.

After Vivien Kelly left, Haruko Maori spoke up and said to Lin Baicheng: "Chairman, we have invested US$380 million in principal in oil futures. If we lose all of this, the loss will be too much." .”

"Don't worry, even if you don't trust Vivien's judgment, you should trust mine."

Lin Baicheng knew what Haruko Maori was worried about, and reminded him specifically: "Don't forget the current gold price. I have invested more in gold futures. Doesn't the rise in the current gold price prove that my vision is correct."

"That's what I say, but no one can be sure what kind of fluctuations the futures market will have. Once there is a downward adjustment, existing profits will be significantly retracted."

In view of her relationship with Lin Baicheng, Maori Haruko is more courageous, and she is indeed worried about Lin Baicheng's investment. There is really too much investment here, which is scary.

"It's okay. Even if there are adjustments, it will just mean making less money. Anyway, our cost-price ratio is low."

Lin Baicheng did not explain too much to Maori Haruko. He said that the gold price could rise to US$800 per ounce. It was unnecessary. If he said too much, it would be difficult to explain.

All Maori Haruko could do was remind her that after all, the money belonged to Lin Baicheng. With Lin Baicheng's resolute attitude, it was hard for her to say more. After all, too many unpleasant words could easily annoy people, and she didn't want to be disliked by Lin Baicheng.

"Let's go back together."

Lin Baicheng and Maori Haruko left the company after get off work.

However, Lin Baicheng did not stay at Maori Haruko's apartment that night. He went to the high-end apartment on Fifth Avenue, where Guan Zhilin stayed. He could not keep Guan Zhilin alone here. How could he do it every two days? Come once.

In the following trading days, oil prices continued to fall, but the decline was not too much, just half a point one point at a time.

However, although the daily decline was not large, the decline for many consecutive trading days was accompanied by only occasional small rebounds. Oil prices gradually fell below the price of US$13 per barrel, and Golden Fleece Company naturally suffered losses.

During this period, although Vivien Kelly made two short-term trades as Lin Baicheng said, the profit each time was only about two million U.S. dollars. The total of the two times was only four million U.S. dollars. Compared with the 2 billion U.S. dollars of funds operated, the profit was slightly The profit from short-term trading is nothing at all.

Vivien Kelly was a little worried, and kept in touch with Lin Baicheng, who had left New York and returned to Los Angeles. Lin Baicheng reassured her, and at the same time asked her to insist on holding long orders, and at most occasionally take part of the position as a short-term trade.

Since the oil futures position will not be liquidated in the short term, Lin Baicheng naturally does not need to stay in New York every day. He has more companies in Los Angeles than in New York.

However, Lin Baicheng, who took Guan Zhilin away from New York, did not immediately rush to work. Instead, he took Guan Zhilin to play in Los Angeles, and even took Guan Zhilin to play at a large farm in Fresno, which made Guan Zhilin very happy. for a few days.