Reinventing the Millennium

On the first night after arriving in Silicon Valley from New York, Kong Yu tossed and turned and couldn't sleep.

The red wine was expensive, the hotel was luxurious, and Mr. Fang was very kind, but he didn't feel sleepy at all. Instead, he was filled with all kinds of emotions.

This life of a person... is really difficult to predict.

Kong Yu believes that if he writes a memoir, the past few years will be magnificent, including Shanghai, New York, Washington, Paris, London... He has visited too many places, and has also met famous people in the financial circles around the world. characters, and also witnessed the final carnival and demise of institutions such as Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns, and Washington Mutual.

However, at this moment, the red wine in the glass was tasteless, and he just felt extremely homesick.

Mr. Fang did not restrict his freedom. He could even fly back to Shanghai tonight if he wanted to.

However, Mr. Fang's will is the strongest restraint.

Without his approval, this position cannot be relinquished.

In fact, Kong Yu is sometimes very pessimistic. It is difficult to predict a person's life, and his final destination... is also difficult to predict.

He suspected that in the end he would either die as a guest...in the Mississippi River, or in the Huangpu River.

Kong Yu put down the red wine glass in his hand, climbed into bed again, and restrained his random thoughts.

His biggest hope now is that he can stop short-selling operations that have left his name in history for more than a year, and just return to his hometown in glory as the helm of a well-known Wall Street fund.

Maybe, maybe, as Mr. Fang said, he would stop after one more vote?

He has not paid attention to Greece recently, but there are rumors in the circle that Goldman Sachs' financial operations for Greece's entry into the European Union are probably rooted here.

This financial crisis is global in nature, and the changes being stirred up in Europe are likely to bring more opportunities.

Kong Yu felt that Mr. Fang had some vague connection or even tacit understanding with Goldman Sachs, or that a series of figures at the New York Times Institute were the source of inside information. In short, what Mr. Fang said today was definitely not without purpose.

But how much money do you need to make to be satisfied?

Kong Yu opened his eyes and looked at the ceiling. He knew that he was not in control of all the operations of Mr. Fang's funds, and he also realized that the deputy beside him was probably the well-intentioned supervisor of Mr. Fang, but he could make a vague judgment.

The big short Paulson made $12 billion last year by shorting CDOs and controlled more than $30 billion in funds. Excluding his personal share of $6 billion, one-third of the remaining $6 billion in profits was own side.

This year, Paulson switched to shorting bank stocks, with profits estimated to exceed $8 billion, which still accounts for one-sixth of his own profits.

In this way, the short-selling profit that can be delivered by the big short seller is around US$3 billion.

This is the move from nobody to Wall Street star.

However, I am not bad either!

Kong Yu suddenly sat up from the bed when he thought of this. Although he couldn't say it publicly, he was not bad at all!

Lehman, Fannie and Freddie, bank stocks, and Qimonda’s small short sellers with ulterior motives are not included... From last year to this year, the profits of these short sellers that took advantage of the trend exceeded 6 billion U.S. dollars, which is enough to put the microphone in front of the mouth of Wall Street. , enough to make many customers flock to it!

Considering that Mr. Fang has other arrangements, Kong Yu estimates that the profit on paper from 2007 to this year is more than 10 billion US dollars, and excluding the money distributed to customers, various nestings and penetrations, the profit should be as much as billions of dollars in liquidity.

Therefore, he mustered up the courage to say "enough money" today. These are all working capital. Rich clients in the fund with net worths of hundreds of millions can only use tens of millions of working capital.

After a short period of chicken blood, Kong Yu lay down helplessly.

What Mr. Fang said is not unreasonable - what is enough?

Kong Yu can understand Mr. Fang.

As the boss's tool, I have to figure out the boss's thoughts from time to time, and there is nothing that Mr. Fang is most willing to spend money on than the ice core in his hand.

When Kong Yu was invited to have tea by the FBI, he was carefully browsing global semiconductor information. Today, Ice Core has a 65nm process production line, and the investment cost of the next 45nm production line is more than 3 billion US dollars.

After working hard for more than a year, I only have enough money to build two and a half production lines?

All the grandeur has turned into reality with only two and a half production lines?

Kong Yu became a little frustrated when he thought about this. When did this happen?

This is still 45nm. With the upgrade of the process, the investment may be doubled in the future 32/28. It is even more exaggerated to make progress in the future... When will this end!

Kong Yu tossed and turned and suddenly turned his head and saw that it was dawn.

He rubbed his face and tried to sleep happily.

It took just over a year of hard work to build two and a half production lines!

I'm so capable!

…

On the afternoon of the second day after arriving in Silicon Valley, Kong Yu, who had a disorderly schedule, met Mr. Fang in the R\u0026D center and found that he was reading the work report he submitted.

"Sit down, Xiao Liu, and pour some tea for Mr. Kong."

Kong Yu took the tea from Liu Zonghong and drank it after just one sip. It was the top-notch Biluochun, and this was his favorite tea.

He tasted it silently for a while, waiting for Mr. Fang's voice.

"I asked about yesterday's matter again, and it was confirmed that it was a problem with Goldman Sachs." Fang Zhuo spoke slowly, "This investigation was earlier than we thought. It started last year, and even Dabao was asked to testify. , explaining the role Goldman Sachs played in triggering the subprime mortgage crisis.”

"The scope of the investigation is very broad, ranging from all stages of mortgage securitization to the institutions that bundle the securities and the banks that ultimately hold the securities."

"In addition to large financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan, various rating agencies such as Moody's, Standard \u0026 Poor's, and Fitch International have also been investigated."

"However, the investigation is so extensive that it is not a big problem. Executives of many institutions have been asked to assist in similar situations."

"It's our old friend. The German banks are probably being seriously targeted."

Fang Zhuo has been trying to figure out what happened since yesterday's incident, and he probably really understands the process. The unconventional operations of large financial institutions are the focus of this investigation. Goldman Sachs' behavior of packaging CDOs in its own name is obviously under consideration. .

"Deutsche Bank sold US$14.2 billion in MBS securities to Fannie and Freddie last year. This time it is really in trouble."

When Kong Yu heard Mr. Fang give out precise figures, he couldn't help but ask: "Will Deutsche Bank be caught?"

"There has to be an explanation for whether it's light or heavy." Fang Zhuo shrugged, "As for who is light and who is heavy, let's see."

Kong Yu asked again: "Where is Xiaobao?"

"He won't have any problems." Fang Zhuo was very sure, "Besides us, there were other people helping to say hello yesterday, probably his other customers. After all, what he did was within the process, not like us. ."

Short selling is legal, but making money during a crisis can easily lead to other problems.

Whether it is Yike's market in the United States or the review of ice cores, these are areas that need attention.

Therefore, clients such as O'Neill's family foundation, Geithner's treasury, Summers' pocket money, and golf friendship clubs also have their fair share.

Now, the investigation here at the MIGA Fund has ended, and Mr. Kong can fly around happily again.

"Mr. Fang..." Kong Yu said hesitantly.

Fang Zhuo waved his hand, and secretary Liu Zonghong left the office knowingly.

Kong Yu continued: “If necessary, I also know the situation of some of my short-selling peers.”

Fang Zhuo frowned, you are a bit bad.

He thought for a while and suddenly asked: "There shouldn't be many short-selling institutions in the past two years, right?"

"Not many, like CDS. In the United States, there are probably more than 13,000 hedge funds and thousands of other investment institutions licensed to invest in CDS, but only about 100 are really willing to get involved in CDS." Kong Yu is the market leader. The situation is well known, “Most of these 100 companies are still trying to hedge their real estate properties.”

He continued: "There may not be more than 20 companies that are actually betting on the collapse of the real estate market. After all, their opponents are essentially a huge machine mixed together by the administration, banks, the Federal Reserve, and rating agencies."

Kong Yu commented calmly: "This process of short selling and betting is still very painful."

Fang Zhuo nodded, believing that this was Mr. Kong's most profound feeling.

Kong Yu said again at this time: "However, in the end, there are only two production lines."

Fang Zhuo was startled, he didn't expect to talk about this.

He glanced at Kong Guangtou and said with a smile: "More than that? The function of funds is to activate more funds, to provide support at critical moments, and to sweep up bargain hunting. These effects are immeasurable, so Mr. Kong, I It seems that you should be the independent director of Bingxin. Without you, I would not have the confidence to mess with semiconductors."

Even though Kong Yu knew that Fang was always being polite, he still felt a little benefited from it.

He took two sips of tea and asked his doubts: "I know that ice core is developing rapidly, and I also know that more investment will be needed in the future, but when will this end?"

Fang Zhuo was not sure whether the Gasoline Man wanted to beg for bones again, or whether he really had doubts about the development of ice cores.

"The operation of Ice Core is actually relatively healthy. The positive effects brought by 65nm are great. Although it is also affected by the crisis this time, it is not bad. After all, our own mobile phone chips only eat up part of the production capacity. There is no Yike Mars." If it’s a hot seller, it will probably be more difficult.”

"Yike and Bingxin are a positive cycle. The further this cycle goes, the more it can form its own system."

Fang Zhuo explained patiently: "As for when it will be over, according to the estimation of our Dr. Bing Xinliang, although the 45nm process upgrade is also revolutionary, because it uses high-K metal gate transistors composed of new materials. , but the bigger stage is still 28nm.”

"It's already November. Dr. Liang said that it will be almost 2011 when we can see hope of competing with Taiwanese journalists."

Kong Yu thought to himself, this is not the beginning, Mr. Fang, you yourself said it was a phase...

But he did not continue to ask. The boss had already patiently told him so much.

Kong Yu took a deep breath and said seriously: "Mr. Fang, the impact of the financial crisis on Europe is indeed profitable, and I am also very interested in continuing my work. But when Europe is over, I really want to Spending time with my family and being busy with work these years, I always feel like I owe them a lot."

Fang Zhuo did not hold back this time and said simply: "Okay."

Kong Yu: "..."

What's the big deal?

Suddenly feeling scared?

Is it the Mississippi River or the Huangpu River?

Kong Yu swallowed unconsciously. The boss agreed too simply, which was not right.

He quickly lowered his head to drink tea, and then asked: "Who is in charge of the MIGA fund?"

"We'll talk about it then. You're right. You really need to spend more time with your family." Fang Zhuo also really considered Kong Guangtou's mental health and family life. He was not the kind of person who took advantage of others.

Kong Yu's heartbeat accelerated.

He finished the remaining half cup of tea and thought about it: "Mr. Fang, I will first take part in the disposal of toxic assets in the United States, and then think about the subsequent work in detail. All the clients of the MIGA fund will It is very important and cannot be ignored.”

Fang Zhuo looked at Mr. Kong in surprise.

"After all, the fund must be responsible for its customers and put their needs first." Kong Yu is very serious.

Fang Zhuo nodded slowly. He was right. Mr. Kong put the courage of carrying gasoline at work. What career can't be done well?

He said considerately to his subordinates: "Mr. Kong, you need to rest for two days. There will be a banquet between Xiao Ao and high-tech companies in Silicon Valley the night after tomorrow. Then we will meet our big customers together."

Kong Yu nodded energetically, and Xiao Ao was truly promoted to the fund's first customer.

He stood up to say goodbye.

"Oh, yes, give me that list of short-selling institutions you just mentioned." Fang Zhuo remembered this, "Nokia's case against us is about to go to court."

Kong Yu knew Mr. Fang's plan to defend and counterattack Yike. He nodded and suddenly asked: "Mr. Fang, we have two or three short-selling institutions that can be considered partners... Do you want to be listed on them?"

"Is the short selling over?" Fang Zhuo asked.

Kong Yu nodded, and it was basically over.

"Then we are no longer partners." Fang Zhuo said flatly.

Kong Yu took a breath, boss, you are really not a good person.

He agreed: "Okay, Mr. Fang, I will give you the list tonight."

Fang Zhuo waved his hand and ended the interview with Mr. Kong.

Mr. Kong's mental state may really need to be paid attention to. He always feels a little ups and downs.

Yesterday's investigation probably really scared him. I hope meeting all the big clients can soothe his soul and allow him to fight with full energy again.

It stands to reason that since the big clients are on top, it's okay for everyone to make a small fortune together in the past few years.

Fang Zhuo poured himself a cup of tea, picked up the work report submitted by Mr. Kong again, looked at it for a few times, and then picked up another more independent report.

The speculation about this short market is written in English on it. In addition to the active John Paulson, there seems to be a ferocious big fish swimming in the dark.

The identity of this big fish is unknown, and because of John Paulson's analysis at a party, he was called the Big Short X of the Century.

Some people doubt whether X really exists and think this is just Paulson's statement to confuse the public.

Some people firmly believe that there is such a person, an organization or even several organizations.

Some people believe that the Great Short Seller