Revisiting Future Path

104th Capital Game

June 19th is Saturday, and June 20th is the weekend, which is the closed time for the weekend.

The stock market closed does not affect media speculation, and relevant reports revealing the path of Wei Dongsheng’s fortune have been released one after another. Since the public relations are in place, the media such as "New River News" did not hold on to the black history of plug-ins and private servers. The main space is to describe how Wei Dongsheng started his business and summarize Wei Dongsheng's image in the eyes of classmates, teachers, and parents. In the meantime, Wei Manman realized his wishes with the assistance of his classmates and accepted several groups of reporters in the name of Wei Dongsheng. Perhaps because of his beautiful and attractive appearance, Wei Manman's shadow appeared on the local TV station in Hedong Province, and his photos were reprinted by the media.

For the sake of the topic, the media pursued Wei Dongsheng's 15-year-old fortune; however, the capital market expressed doubts about this and did not believe in the continued stamina of the 15-year-old.

The Hong Kong stock market opened on June 21, and Tencent's share price continued to decline slightly that day, closing at 4.18 Hong Kong dollars. Wei Dongsheng’s 9% equity valuation fell to 670 million yuan on June 21 after falling from 697 million yuan on June 16 to 673 million yuan on June 18.

In other words, Wei Dongsheng's net assets have evaporated another 3 million yuan.

In fact, the main factor in the decline of Tencent's stock price does not depend on Wei Dongsheng's age. In Tencent's prospectus, it has been stated that Wei Dongsheng's voting rights are minimal and cannot influence Tencent's actual operations through equity. On the surface, Wei Dongsheng's holdings in Tencent are purely financial investments, more like a large investor. The capital market doubted Wei Dongsheng's ability, but also understood that Wei Dongsheng would not bring actual losses to Tencent.

Tencent's stock price continues to fall, mainly due to its own reasons, and its earnings prospects are not favored by investors.

The media liked the new and disliked the old. After the topic of Wei Dongsheng’s getting rich, he began to focus on Tencent’s share price and Wei Dongsheng’s net assets evaporating: “Tencent went public on June 16, to June 21, within a few days, Wei Dongsheng’s assets 37 million yuan has evaporated. According to analysis, Tencent’s profits are mainly concentrated in mobile value-added..."

On June 22, Tencent's share price continued to fluctuate and fell slightly, closing at 4.16 Hong Kong dollars.

On the same day, the global supercomputer Top_500 was released in June 2004, and four supercomputers in China were among the top 100. Among them, Nankai_Stars was purchased by Nankai University from IBM, and there are only three domestically produced supercomputers. Lenovo’s DeepComp_6800 (DeepComp_6800) ranked 27th with 4.193 trillion Linpack calculations per second; Dawning 4000A (Dawning_4000A) produced by Dawning ranked 11th with 8.061 trillion Linpack calculations per second; Zhiyu The Cambrian 2004A (Cambrian_2004A) produced, ranked fifth with 11.6 trillion Linpack calculations.

Cambrian 2004A ranked fifth in the world.

Looking up, the first place is still the Earth-Simulator developed by NEC, with a Linpack calculation value of 35.86 trillion times; the second is a newcomer, Thunder developed by California_Digital_Corporation, with a Linpack calculation value of 19.94 trillion The third place is the ASCL_Q developed by HP, with Linpack calculated value of 13.88 trillion times; the fourth place is the blue gene BlueGene/L developed by IBM, with Linpack calculated value of 11.68 trillion times. The Linpack calculated value of BuleGene/L is only a little bit more than Cambrian 2004A, but the peak value is significantly inferior to Cambrian 2004A, which proves that the performance of Cambrian 2004A is actually not weaker than BuleGene/L.

What’s more eye-catching is the total number of processors. The total number of processors in Earth-Simulator is 5120; the total number of Thunder processors is 4096; the total number of ASCL_Q and BuleGene/L processors is 8192, while the Cambrian 2004A has only 274 CPUs and 242 GPUs. The Cambrian 2004A has a total of 496 processors, which is less than one-eighth of Thunder, but its performance is 58.17% of Thunder.

The difference between Cambrian 2004A and other supercomputers is so obvious.

The relevant news media actually learned that Zhiyu had successfully developed a 11.6 trillion-cycle heterogeneous supercomputer before the release of the supercomputer Top_500. It’s just that the news is so incredible. In 2004, the media could hardly believe that the Cambrian 2004A sprinted to the fifth place in the world. It’s even harder to believe that Zhiyu is better than Hewlett-Packard, IBM and other companies. Some even doubt the so-called heterogeneous supercomputers. Maybe it's scientific research fraud. Therefore, with the credit endorsement of the supercomputer Top_500, the relevant media seemed to believe in the untrustworthy to report the achievements of Cambrian 2004A.

Under suspicion, public opinion paid very little attention to Cambrian 2004A.

At the same time, the Cambrian 2004 project is being reviewed by various departments, and the media is unwilling to take the risk of revealing the composition of the Cambrian 2004A R&D team. In short, the news of Cambrian 2004A and the news of billionaire Wei Dongsheng are like two parallel lines with no intertwining points.

On June 23rd, Chunteng Games officially launched the casual music and dance game "Dancing Forest Mengzhu", which exceeded 100,000 online at the same time. As a casual music and dance game, this result is actually very good. The casual game "Bubble Hall" with the highest market share at the moment, three days after the public beta that year, the number of simultaneous online users exceeded 10,000. After more than two months of accumulation, the number of simultaneous online users successfully exceeded 100,000. With the help of QQ's traffic import, "Dancing Cute Lord" completed the two-month journey of "Bubble Hall" in one day.

However, casual games are casual games after all.

Compared with the monthly sales of 15932 million yuan in "The Spring and Autumn of the Ten Kingdoms" in May, and the 200,000 simultaneous online records on the first day of the public beta of "The Spring and Autumn of the Ten Kingdoms", the performance of "Dancing Cute Lord" is so inconspicuous; Compared with the 200 million QQ users advertised by Tencent, the conversion rate of 100,000 simultaneous online users is so low. Reminiscent of Tencent's hitting the rocks in the "Triumph" project, the capital market has been declining the income brought to Tencent by "Dance Mengzhu", and Tencent's stock price continued to fall.

On June 23, Tencent's stock price closed at 3.93 Hong Kong dollars, horribly breaking through the 4 Hong Kong dollar defense line.

At the end of June, NetEase announced that NetEase Bubble has integrated modules for interoperability between the network and traditional phones. As long as the policy allows, users can communicate with mobile phones via the Internet; on July 1, Microsoft said that it would accelerate the development of MSN in the Chinese market. These two pieces of news are very bad news for Tencent. Shareholders looked down on the prospects of QQ competing with NetEase Bubble and MSN, and suspected that the "Dancing Cute Lord" project had already suffered setbacks, and Tencent's stock price immediately ushered in a new round of diving.

On July 1, Tencent's stock price closed at 3.69 Hong Kong dollars. Tencent’s listing price was set at the highest limit of the offer price of HK$3.7, and the stock price broke through HK$3.7 and fell to HK$3.69, which means that all investors who buy Tencent’s stock have lost their capital. It is human nature to chase the rise and kill the fall, and some stockholders who decide to stop losses resolutely sell their holdings.

On July 2, Tencent's share price fell to 3.43 Hong Kong dollars.

July 3 and July 4 are closed weekends.

On July 5, Tencent's share price continued to decline, closing at 3.28 Hong Kong dollars.

With the stock price falling to this level, Tencent’s founder team should be gloomy.

However, the fact is the opposite. Tencent's core employees have been smiling confidently since July 3.

why?

The answer is "Dancing Lord", the answer is "Dancing Lord" operating data, and the answer is "Dancing Lord" sales.

Since the launch of the public beta on June 23, the number of active players in "Dance Cute" has steadily increased. As of July 3, it has exceeded the 200,000 simultaneous online mark. If "Dance of the Forest" is a timed pay game, such operating data has ensured that Chunteng Games can quickly become a second-tier online game operator. Although "Dancing Moe Lord" is not a time-paid game, although it is impossible to predict the future of "Dancing Moe Lord" in a short period of time, the total sales from June 23 to June 30 on the 8th have already surprised Tencent.

1.2 million yuan.

This is the answer sheet handed in by "Dancing Cute Lord".

In just eight days, "Dancing Cute Lord" brought 1.2 million yuan in revenue.

More importantly, the daily sales of "Dancing Cute Lord" are rising at a steady rate, and the average daily sales in July will only exceed the average daily sales in these eight days. Based on the operating data on June 30, the minimum monthly sales volume in July is 6 million yuan.

Monthly sales of 6 million yuan, such data is not outstanding.

The gambling agreement between Wei Dongsheng and Tencent stipulates that one of the three games will achieve monthly sales of more than 6 million yuan in eight months, and Chunqiu must pay 250 million yuan to compensate the equity transferor; achieve six months of monthly sales More than 18 million yuan can take away the 9.6% stake in Tencent at a reserve price of 50 million yuan. With monthly sales of 6 million yuan, Wei Dongsheng’s gambling agreement cannot be completed yet.

However, Tencent is based on reality, how dare you expect "Dancing Cute Lord" to reach the height of the legendary series or "Ten Kingdoms Spring and Autumn". If Tencent is confident, it will not sign a gambling agreement with Wei Dongsheng for the transfer of 9.6% of the equity of 50 million yuan.

"Dancing Cute Lord" is just a casual game after all.

"Bubble Hall", the leader in casual games, has monthly revenue of approximately RMB 15 million. If "Dancing Cute Lord" can achieve monthly revenue of 6 million yuan in July, the prospects will be very, very optimistic. Chunteng Games cooperated with Tencent to release the June operating data and expected revenue of "Dancing Lord", drawing a wonderful prospect to the capital market: the existing growth rate continues to develop, "Dancing Lord" has a great probability of becoming "Spring and Autumn of the Ten Kingdoms" in the leisure game field.

2004 is still the era of online games.

Any winner in the online game market must also be a winner in the capital market.

When "Dancing Cute Lord" indirectly indicated that Tencent had made up for the lack of online game sector, Tencent's stock price immediately rose against the trend and closed at a high of 4.79 Hong Kong dollars on July 6, an increase of 46%.

On July 7, Tencent's stock price closed at HK$4.84.

On July 8, Tencent's stock price closed at 4.90 Hong Kong dollars.

On July 9, Tencent's share price closed at HK$5.0, hitting a high of HK$5 for the first time.

In terms of 5 Hong Kong dollars, the market value of Tencent has soared to 8.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, or about 8.9 billion yuan, which is very close to Wei Dongsheng's 10 billion yuan valuation a few months ago.

Wei Dongsheng's 9% equity has jumped in value.

Tencent's stock price has been falling some time ago. The media who continue to pay attention to Wei Dongsheng are calculating how much assets Wei Dongsheng evaporates every day. It is regrettable that Wei Dongsheng, a young and rich man, has suddenly risen and fallen. How do you think, Chunteng Games just released its results, and Tencent's stock price immediately bottomed out. Wei Dongsheng's previous assets of 677 million have not evaporated, but have rapidly increased to new heights.

At HK$3.28 on July 5, Tencent’s 9% stake is valued at RMB 526 million; at HK$5 on July 9, Tencent’s 9% stake is valued at RMB 800 million.

8-5.26=274 million.

The 1.2 million revenue of "Dancing Cute Lord" has driven Wei Dongsheng's net assets to increase by 274 million.

This is the capital game.

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