The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 429 The pinnacle of personal prestige

   On the evening of August 7th, when the Hong Kong dollar opened, it was immediately attacked violently. Since the impact of the previous period did not achieve the desired effect, international speculators significantly strengthened their efforts on this day, throwing a large amount of Hong Kong dollars at the position of 7.75 as soon as the market opened. The psychological defense line of the Hong Kong dollar is gone.

The Monetary Authority, which has been waiting for a long time, is naturally going all out, fighting desperately with speculators in the Hong Kong dollar forward and spot markets. Although the Monetary Authority has consumed nearly 7 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves in the past few trading days, It has not shaken the HKMA's determination to defend the Hong Kong dollar.

  On this day, in London and New York, the transactions of Hong Kong dollar varieties hit a record high, even higher than the peak transactions in November last year and the beginning of this year. During the six to seven hours of trading time, both the offensive side and the defensive side threw out hundreds of millions (HKD/USD) as the minimum unit, and the two sides came and went, fighting frequently.

During the period, the Monetary Authority sold a large number of U.S. dollars to mobilize the bullish sentiment in the market, and once pushed the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to around 7.7460. However, speculators were not to be outdone. The offensive once again pushed the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate to the psychological barrier of 7.7500.

  During the tug-of-war between the two sides, the trading volume of the Hong Kong dollar increased linearly, and the transaction amount rose rapidly. By the end of the day, the trading volume of Hong Kong dollars on this day had reached an astonishing 40 billion Hong Kong dollars. According to the calculation of 7.7498 at the final closing time, it was equivalent to about 5.161 billion U.S. dollars.

  So many U.S. dollars are consumed in one night, if there are another 20 such trading days, then the Hong Kong government's U.S. dollar reserves will be exhausted.

  The price of 7.75 is the lowest exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar in the past few months, and it is also the most dangerous time for international speculators to attack the Hong Kong stock market. In any case, in the end, the HKMA still relied on its strong foreign exchange reserves to forcefully resist the opponent's offensive.

  Different from countries such as South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia, Hong Kong has very little foreign debt, which prevents international speculators from creating momentum to instigate foreign capital to flee. And this kind of escape will directly consume a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, which is why foreign exchange reserves in other countries will soon dry up. This situation does not exist in Hong Kong, so international speculators must face-to-face with the Hong Kong government's foreign exchange reserves that are close to hundreds of billions of dollars.

  Although speculators swarmed, most speculators knew that the real purpose was still to short Hong Kong stocks and the Hang Seng Index. It is really difficult to destroy the foreign exchange reserves of hundreds of billions of dollars. Moreover, they are only a loose alliance, and there is no binding relationship between them. Once the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate rises to a certain point, there is no guarantee that some of them will fight back do more.

As for the Hong Kong stock market, the daytime fell again on the 7th. It once fell to the 7000-point mark in the intraday session, but the decline narrowed in the afternoon market. The bulls took the opportunity to attack, but the follow-up was weak. Below 7000 points, the bearish sentiment in the market outlook is still strong. Under such an unfavorable situation, the bulls barely pulled the Hong Kong stock index up to 7018 points, and they no longer have the motivation to continue to attack.

   Next is the weekend, and the stock market will continue to open on the 11th.

  …

   "This is your plan?" Julian Robertson looked at the speech in his hand, but his mind was thinking quickly. Soon, a grand plan slowly emerged in his mind.

   Until now, Julian Robertson really understood Soros' overall plan. Similar to Zhong Shi's guess, Soros intends to use the possible crisis in the Russian market to create a major crisis affecting the global market. In this plan, he not only considered various influencing factors and used these possible factors to carry out global layout, but also took into account his current prestige in the financial market.

  What is Soros' current personal prestige? It can be seen from the speech he delivered in South Korea at the beginning of the year: since accepting the invitation of the Kim Dae-jung government, he made some optimistic remarks on the Korean economy. The stock market in Seoul also rose by at least 30%, with a large amount of foreign capital pouring in.

   To put it bluntly, today's Soros is the spiritual pillar and actual leader of international hot money. As long as he gives an order, most of the international hot money will follow him without hesitation and hit the capital market of a certain country or region. What supports them to do so is not only Soros' invincibility in the Asian market, but also because of his high-profile, which is different from the low-key of other hedge fund managers.

  When he saw that Soros even counted his own prestige into the whole plan, Julian Robertson suddenly felt a chill from the bottom of his heart. He never thought that this thing could also be used as a factor affecting the situation, but Soros thought of it.

   Naturally, in the bottom of Julian Robertson's heart, he was still unwilling to submit to Soros. So despite the shock in his heart, he still said blankly: "This plan is indeed good, but you have to think about the follow-up plan. Whether the Russian national debt will default, political leaders including Clinton Issues such as sitting on the sidelines to create chaos in Russia will be factors in our bets."

  Julian Robertson is naturally not an ordinary person. After thinking for a while, he realized several possible situations, and whether the Russian national debt defaulted is the most important one. The factors affecting whether Russia's national debt defaults directly rise to the top political level, and even their backstage cannot find out a little bit of news.

"Do not worry!"

Soros first stared at Julian Robertson's face suspiciously for a while, and after making sure that the other party did not have any unexpected expressions, he said lightly after being disappointed, "I have hired many retired politicians to serve as Quantum Fund's Advisory Group. Their main job is to measure whether the United States government and Europe will continue to provide assistance to Russia under the condition that the Russian Duma has announced that they will not accept the IMF.”

"Unlike Thailand, Indonesia and other countries, Russia is the country with the world's largest multi-nuclear weapons. If this country is really in chaos because of economic problems, then their nuclear weapons management will become an issue related to the safety of the entire world. God Ah, this is unbelievable! If an extremist organization possesses such a thing, it will be a disaster for the entire human race!"

"Margaret Thatcher is working with other politicians to study whether the IMF and the current governments of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany will give up research on Russia. Although there is no definite conclusion yet, according to their feedback This time, government officials including Clinton may bow to polar bears. Therefore, before we have a firm conclusion, we just took this opportunity to buy Russian government bonds aggressively, and wait until the IMF assists them again. Time is our chance to make a fortune!"

   "How can a nuclear power default?"

  Finally, Soros said confidently.

"But…"

Julian Robertson wanted to say something more, but after carefully recalling what Soros said, he also felt that it made sense, so he simply kept silent, but he secretly made up his mind that he must give the retired politicians Get the report analyzed by Soros, and follow up after confirming that Soros's words and deeds are indeed consistent.

   "How is Hong Kong?" Soros carefully considered his battle plan for a while, and after making sure that everything was safe, Soros asked Julian Robertson.

   Regarding the battle plan for Hong Kong, Julian Robertson is mainly responsible. This time, the two of them took the lead and gathered almost all the hedge funds on Wall Street, and even European funds also joined it. Due to making waves in the two markets, the two perform their own duties and are responsible for one market respectively. But between the two, it is still Soros who dominates.

"If there are no surprises, Hong Kong's stock market will still fall on Monday and Tuesday. And on Wednesday, we will relax our offense and replenish the Hong Kong dollar in the market to create a day's rise. Wait until they relax their vigilance , you took the opportunity to deliver a speech on the Russian ruble. At that time, we will create a wave of violent shocks in the global stock market, and we will be able to maximize our profits and minimize the impact on Hong Kong stocks. Then as long as we maintain this high-pressure situation, I believe we will be able to do so in August Get out of the warehouse smoothly, and get the profit in your pocket!"

"As long as Russia continues to be in turmoil and the nuclear shadow hangs over the global market all the time, it is impossible for markets including Europe and the United States to have a strong performance, and for the Hong Kong market, it is the first to bear the brunt and suffer a huge threat .Combined with our selling in the Hong Kong dollar market, the combination of the two should be able to support us to escape smoothly.”

  After knowing Soros' overall plan, Julian Robertson also had a general idea of ​​the trend of the Hong Kong market. After clarifying his thinking a little bit, he gave such an operation strategy.

"In addition to these, I also thought of another possibility. That is, when necessary, you can use your personal prestige to declare that you are bearish on the Hong Kong market. At that time, no matter how much the Hong Kong government declares, it will not help. But you have to use you This 'nuclear weapon' must be released at an appropriate time, such as at the end of August, at the end of the settlement, so that we can absolutely ensure victory!"

  Finally, after Julian Robertson rolled his turbid eyeballs a few times, he suddenly offered such a "smart plan".

   "Good job, Julian!" Soros nodded, with a satisfied smile on his face, "Julian, you really know how to learn. I'm really afraid that one day, my position will be replaced by you."

"Stop, George, now is not the time to make jokes." Regarding Soros' "joke", Julian Robertson didn't want to continue at all. He really didn't have the heart to figure out what the other party meant by saying this, " I don’t know if you have noticed that after entering August, many listed companies in Hong Kong have announced stock repurchase plans. Although the market has not shown an obvious recovery trend so far, it is undeniable that these funds will It is an obstacle for us to suppress Hong Kong stocks."

"Relax!" Soros took out a piece of paper from his briefcase, "Julian, you should take a look at this first. The report jointly investigated by Stanley and Goodman shows that among funds active in Hong Kong, the cash holding rate It has reached an unprecedented ratio, which shows that in the eyes of professionals, bearish market outlook is still the mainstream, and the atmosphere is very strong.”

Taking advantage of the time when Julian Robertson was reading the report, Soros took the opportunity to pick up the speech again and began to ponder over every word carefully. After all, this is a "suggestion" for the polar bear government. If there is anything wrong, it is very likely It will cause diplomatic disputes.

On the speech in black and white, it was impressively printed: "...the fixed exchange rate system overestimates the value of the ruble. According to the current situation and the expectations of the foreign exchange market, the ruble must depreciate by at least 15% to 25% to reflect its true price. Here we call on the Russian Prime Minister and the Dumas to face up to this issue..."

   Thank you for your support, the author will continue to work hard~

  (end of this chapter)